Aaron Rodgers: One Trade to Rule Them All

January 8th, 2023 marked a dark day in the history of the Green Bay Packers. Yes, this was the five-year anniversary of Brian Gutekunst being hired as general manager, which was certainly a dreadful day for the Pack. But of course, it was more than that. As the 2023 regular season ended, with a Sunday night football game between the Packers and Lions, it was also the day Aaron Rodgers walked off of Lambeau field in a Packers uniform for the final time.

Looking back, it seems that Rodgers was somehow aware of this truth, and maybe Randall Cobb along with him. In fact, there is a good chance that his inner circle all knew it. That loss, at home, when the Packers simply needed a win to continue their late season heroics, seemed to be the proverbial straw that finally broke the camel’s back and signaled the final and absolute move from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love.

It did not take long for fans, pundits, and management to start talking about what would happen next. I will not begin to dive into the “he said, she said” debates or discuss who is at fault for the entire situation. Though if you know me, you already know where I point the finger (Gute). While we could discuss what would have happened if we had traded Rodgers after back-to-back MVP seasons, an option that now looks to be the more attractive path forward, I want to focus on the present and what the Packers should get for Rodgers right now.

At this point, the only question that really remains is this: what is the final trade compensation going to be for Aaron Rodgers? No one really believes that he will end up with the Niners or a team other than the Jets. Woody Johnson has promised his fans as much, and the Packers have fully moved on to Love as their starter. This will get done. The timing and the compensation are all that remain.

Over the last couple of months, we have seen trade estimates by the dozens. Early discussions had the Jets giving up crazy packages, similar to what the Rams gave up for Stafford and the Broncos gave up for Wilson. These were never realistic simply based on the fact that Rodgers turns 40 this season, and the Jets are likely hoping for two real shots at a Super Bowl run. On the other side of the spectrum, some believe that due to the Packers desire to move on, as well as the risk involved with a 39-year-old QB who has dealt with multiple injuries over the last five years, that they would be lucky to land a day two pick at all.

As soon as the Jets traded Elijah Moore and a third-round pick to the Browns for #42 overall, the talking heads told us that this was to provide more ammunition to get the deal done with Green Bay. The only thing we have heard since then is….. well…. crickets. Unless you count the quote from Woody Johnson that Rodgers is coming.

It has been statements like these that have thrown the advantage back and forth between the front offices of Green Bay and New York. Green Bay made it clear that it would mess up their plans if Rodgers were to come back. The Jets made it clear that they were going to get Rodgers. The Packers media group put Jordan Love front and center, even pushing items from their team store. The Jets signed the likes of Allen Lazard and haven’t been shy about entertaining the idea of adding more of Rodgers’ friends. Neither side has played their cards close to the vest. Everyone knows that the Packers want to move on from Rodgers and everyone knows that the Jets want him to be their starting QB.

So where does this leave us? The Packers cannot have their cake and eat it too. They are parting with a terrible contract and moving to their quarterback of the future, at the latest realistic moment. Likewise, the Jets also cannot have everything their way. If they were getting a QB that would give them several years of greatness, it would cost multiple first and multiple second round picks, similar to the Russell Wilson deal. Rodgers may be a one-year wonder that could deliver a Super Bowl; however, that limited window is why they don’t have to shell out four or more early picks.

With this foundation laid, and with the needs of both teams in mind, I will attempt to compile the perfect trade for both sides-- one that I actually believe could get done in the near future.

From the Jets side, one thing is very clear: they are not parting with the 13th pick. If they were, this deal would already be done. The Packers would love to have the 13th and 15th picks, and they would very likely consider moving back with one or both of them to add a slew of players to start the rebuild. When Gute stated that the deal would not need to include the 13th pick to get it done, I think both sides understood that the first round pick was simply off the table. Rodgers would also probably prefer that the Jets protect him with a first round OT or add a major playmaker to help the team win now.

From the Packers side of things, it seems that they would like to land a 1st-round pick and understand that the 2024 1st-rounder will likely be late in the round. But the Jets may not be eager to deal a 2024 1st-rounder, because if Rodgers only plays one year, they may need that pick to draft their next quarterback.

At one point in time, it was believed that the Packers may have interest in wide receiver talent coming back to them in the deal; but if this was the case, why would the Jets trade Moore PLUS their third to land the #42 overall pick? Wouldn’t they have just added Moore and the third to the package being offered to Green Bay? The Packers could still look at someone like Corey Davis, but I don’t believe they want to pay him at his current contract value.

So where does that leave us? My final prediction keeps things straight-forward, allows the Jets not to part with a single first round pick, and gives Green Bay plenty of talent to help with the rebuild.

The Jets receive:

Aaron Rodgers

The Packers receive:

2023 #42 overall

2023 #43 overall

2024 contingent 4th-round pick; this pick becomes a 2nd-round pick if Aaron Rodgers is on the Jets roster 3 days after the new league year begins in 2024.

Jordan Whitehead

Looking at the Jimmy Johnson trade chart, the value of the 42nd and 43rd picks total 950 points. The 2024 pick would either be a 2nd-rounder or a 4th-rounder, and either one would likely be near the end of the round. For discussion’s sake, I’ll average the 60th and 125th picks for another 174 points. That is 1124 points, plus Whitehead. The 13th overall pick is worth 1150 points. This just makes sense.

Why the Jets win this trade: The Jets land a quarterback that could bring them a real shot at winning the Super Bowl for at least the next two seasons. For both of those years, they did not give up a first round pick. The 13th pick will allow them to provide immediate assistance to Rodgers, possibly in the form of a stud OT like Paris Johnson Jr. Keeping their 1st-rounder in 2024 provides insurance if Rodgers is one-and-done.

Why the Packers win this trade: The Packers win this deal mainly because they finally get to initiate their plan of starting Jordan Love. Just as importantly, they also fill three holes immediately. Jordan Whitehead is a safety that can be an immediate starter for the Packers in a huge area of need. The two picks in 2023 will allow Gute all kinds of options. He could hold at his current spots (15, 42, 43, 45) and grab four impact players. He could package two of the second-round picks and move back into the first for another top 20 talent. He could even consider being active on the trade market to pursue someone like Deandre Hopkins with this new draft ammunition. The 2024 compensation is minimal if Rodgers walks away after one year; but if he returns, the Packers get another useful pick while the Jets get another run at the Super Bowl.

While neither side walks away from this potential deal saying that they got exactly what they may have wanted, both sides can be very happy with the deal-- a deal that could help one team win now and the other re-shape the future for years to come.