Over/Under For Packers Wins is 7.5, Here's Why It Will Be Over

Allow me to admit something that may very well get my NFL Fan Card revoked.

I don't get real fired up about the release of the NFL Schedule. Sure, it is fun to take a casual glance at, but the NFL changes so much from year to year that it is not a great barometer for how a team is going to end up. What looks easy could end up difficult, especially for a team like us going through a transition.

Now, having said all that... I've seen the ridiculously goofy video the Packers released on Twitter announcing the schedule and I have thoughts. Three of them are good, three of them are not. Good news first, because I'm an optimist.

1. There are no unwinnable games.

Let me be clear, I am not predicting a 17-0 record. But it's not a daunting schedule.

We get the NFC South and the AFC West as our divisions. While I don't love that we are playing the Chiefs for the third time in four years, that's the way it is. At least this year the game is a Sunday Nighter in Lambeau. We also get the LA Chargers at home. Those two teams are likely to be the class of their division, so having those games at home is not a bad thing. We do get a road game at Pittsburgh as our crossover game, which will be tough.

Looking at the NFC South, you have a rebuilding Tampa Bay and a mediocre Saints squad at home, and roads games at frisky-but-not-necessarily-ready-for-the-next-step Carolina and Atlanta. Those are games we can get, especially if our offense proves to be better than average. I can live with this.

2. There are no daunting road games.

Our trips to Las Vegas and Denver are separated by the Bye Week, which makes those trips much more manageable. Also, we have two MNF games both on the road, which is just interesting more than anything else. Perhaps most importantly, we do not have any games in Europe. Nothing against the existence of those games, but I would just assume that level of jet lag be someone else's problem. As for the division games, I'll get to those later.

3. Our home opener isn't until Week 3.

This is where I may lose some of you. Hear me out though.

There is going to be as much pressure on Jordan Love as maybe any quarterback in the league. But despite everything positive being said about his improvement and leadership, he is still inexperienced in his role as The Man. So I would rather his first two games be on the road than a home opener that could go sideways and set a negative tone for the rest of the season. If he starts off 0-2, well they were two road games. Road games are hard to win in the NFL. Two losses won't tell us a ton unless he looks awful in both. Say they split those games (preferably winning Week One at Chicago), then that gives fans a bit of optimism going into the home opener. Best case scenario, we start off 2-0 and the sky is the limit in a division that we can win.

Now the bad news.

1. I REALLY didn't want us to play Chicago Week One.

One of my favorite parts of the Aaron Rodgers Era was his ownership of Chicago. My sense is a Bears fanbase and team are collectively licking their chops at the possibility of taking out several years of frustration. Not to mention we historically look bad Week One. This sets up to be a recipe for disaster.

2. I REALLY didn't want a home game Week 18.

While it's hard to know exactly what to expect from the Packers this year, I don't think we will be so bad that we aren't contending for a Wild Card spot. And in that case, I would deem the upcoming season a success. But our recent track record suggests we don't exactly thrive in Must Win situations at home. (See Week 18 last year and most playoff games in recent memory.) So if we were to be in that situation again, I would have preferred to have to win a road game. Again, expectations are relatively low this year, so I would rather mitigate the opportunities to allow things to get ugly this year. Not to mention the season finale is against Chicago. A loss against them in Lambeau to end the season would be extra sour.

3. Those road division games are going to be in the worst possible environments.

I've already mentioned playing at Soldier Field to start the season, but our other road division games are at Detroit on Thanksgiving and at Minnesota on New Year's Eve on a Sunday Night. While calling Detroit a division favorite or even a darkhorse Super Bowl contender is certainly a bold choice, I do think they are trending in the right direction. So if they are better than they traditionally are, the Thanksgiving game could be a pretty raucous environment. And while I don't necessarily fear the Vikings this year, that lends itself to another environment where things could go sideways quickly.

So there are just some general thoughts on the Packers schedule. While I don't know how the season will shake out, I couldn't help but notice that the Over/Under is 7.5 wins this season. Knowing what the schedule is and how much talent we have, I have to think that we can find at least 8 wins.