The Deal, The Draft, The Dream

T.S. Elliot once mused, “What we call the beginning is often the end. And to make an end is to make a beginning. The end is where we start from.” After a painstaking 40 days since Aaron Rodgers let the world know that it was his intention to play for the New York Jets, and with fans counting down the hours until the draft, the Packers and Jets finally put together a deal to send Rodgers to New York. While the ink is not yet dry, and Rodgers will be tweaking his contract to make all the pieces fit, it appears that the end is truly, finally here. Or is it the beginning?

The Deal:

The details of the final trade were straight forward. The Jets will receive their potential hero in Aaron Rodgers, the 15th pick, and the 170th pick. The Packers will receive the 13th pick, the 42nd pick, and the 207th pick, plus a 2024 2nd-round pick that becomes a 1st-round pick if Rodgers plays 65% of the offensive snaps for the Jets.

In understanding the actual value of the deal, we should start at the end with the 2024 selection. If Rodgers plays 65% of the offensive snaps, there is a high chance that the Jets have a very good season. That means their 2024 1st-round selection will likely be toward the end of the round, probably in the late 20s. If Rodgers were to get hurt, and not reach the 65% threshold, the Jets are likely going to struggle, and that 2nd round pick will be much earlier. Then the Packers may be looking at something in the early teens. So, the range is likely between 26th-48th overall in 2024.

The swap of the 5th and 6th round picks worked fine for Green Bay as they had an extra 5th-rounder and were missing a 6th-rounder due to their previous trade with the Rams for Corey Bojorquez.

Basing the deal solely on draft value, we can look at the Jimmy Johnson chart. The Packers gained 100 points moving from 15th to 13th. The 42nd pick is worth 480 points. If we take the average of next year’s pick (for argument’s sake, somewhere between 26th-48th) that adds another 570 points. Finally, the Packers lost about 10 points moving back from 170 to 207. Total: 1140 points.

Looking back at our One Trade to Rule Them All scenario, I had the Packers gaining 1124 points plus Jordan Whitehead-- Almost a mirror image of the deal that was finally agreed to.

The Draft:

The two major impacts on the 2023 draft include the move from 15 to 13, and the addition of the 42nd selection. Brian Gutekunst now has three of the top 45 picks at his disposal, as well as another eight selections between the 3rd and 7th rounds. This draft ammo should allow him to find talent that fills immediate needs and allows the new-look Packers to develop into a team captained by Jordan Love rather than Aaron Rodgers.

The debate at what to do with the 13th selection may come down to who is actually available. While much of the fan base is screaming for wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, I believe the move from 15 to 13 may have been to jump both the Jets and Patriots for our left tackle of the future. If either Peter Skoronski or Paris Johnson Jr. are still available at 13, the Packers may draft their long-term replacement for David Bakhtiari. However, if both of them have been taken, I do think that the Packers may have Smith-Njigba high enough on their board that they snag a stud slot receiver. Also, don’t be surprised if Miles Murphy is the pick here, allowing Green Bay to move on from Preston Smith after the 2023 season. My final pick is going to be OT at 13.

As the Packers move into the second round, they will likely want to fill two more immediate needs. After protecting Love with their LT of the future, they will now look to grab an offensive weapon to help in Love’s development. Packers fans and numerous mock drafts seem to be scrambling for a tight end or a slam-dunk slot wide receiver. I expect Green Bay might look to make a much bigger splash as they look to replicate the success of someone like Deebo Samuel in San Francisco.

I think that Gute has a very specific player in mind: Jahmyr Gibbs. Gibbs is a freak athlete that can line up as a running back, a slot wide receiver, or even outside. This pick makes even more sense given Aaron Jones may be in his last year with the Packers; but even this year I see plenty of scenarios where Gibbs, Jones, and Dillon are ALL on the field at the same time. I do not believe Gibbs is going to make it to 42 though. Carolina is going to be trying to fill the hole left by Christian McCaffery, so the Packers need to get ahead of them to have any shot at securing this talent.

Green Bay works with one of their favorite trade partners and deals picks 42, 116, and 170 to Seattle for picks 37 and 151, to select Gibbs.

After making two moves to protect Love and add a major offensive weapon, the Packers turn to defense at 45. Green Bay would have loved to snag Will McDonald IV, but the Panthers watch him fall into their laps at 39. With Preston Smith possibly entering his final year with the Packers, I think Gute goes with an athletic specimen in Keion White. White (6’5, 285) has a very high ceiling, and can be a rotational player in 2023 and a starter in 2024. He is even bigger than Smith and just as fast.

Bonus coverage: With the 78th overall pick, the Packers satisfy another need in Antonio Johnson. The Texas A&M safety has decent size (6’2, 198), and will be given every chance to make an impact early in his Packer career.

The Dream:

From the moment that Gute drafted Jordan Love in 2020, he and Matt LaFleur had a dream of shaping the Packers into a dynamic offense that was not based solely on the precision of Aaron Rodgers and the perfect route running of Davante Adams. They wanted a team of dynamic playmakers, and a set of schemes that left defenses completely clueless. This new-look offense will be based on speed, timing, screens, and perfect flow. Imagine rolling out Watson and Doubs on the outside, Gibbs in the slot, Deguara as an H-back/tight end hybrid, and Jones in the backfield, while your 6’4, 225-pound QB with a cannon arm and blazing speed has RPO options on every single play. That is the dream.

While dreams take time to develop, the Packers players seem to be all-in. No longer are there questions of whose team this is. Love is the captain, Gute is the architect, and LaFleur is the brain to bring it all together. I expect to see the team together early and often. Expect 100% participation in every aspect of the off-season programming.

These players have been written off. The Packers are expected to finish last in the NFC North. Pundits have already written and published the eulogy for the 2023 Green Bay Packers. For the doubters, the dream looks a lot more like a nightmare, and the farewell to Aaron Rodgers is a farewell to being relevant in the NFC. But to make an end is to make a beginning, and the end is where we start from. Yes, the end of the Rodgers era is truly, finally here. But so is the start of something new. Let’s go.